Published: Mon, April 16, 2018
Worldwide | By Isabel Fisher

IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall in 2018

IMD predicts normal monsoon rainfall in 2018

In a news that would bring cheer to the Indian economy, the IMD says the country would experience normal monsoon this year.

This forecast comes with a model error of plus or minus 5%. Since 2012, IMD is also using the dynamical global climate forecasting system (CFS) model developed under the Monsoon Mission to generate forecasts. The MET department said that monsoon will be 97 per cent of long period average, which is normal for the season.

The monsoon is considered normal if the average rainfall is between 96 to 104 per cent of long period average.

A normal south-west monsoon bodes well for the Indian economy and is likely to boost rural demand and alleviate farm distress.


IMD will update its forecast in early June with numbers on month and region-wise distribution of the monsoon.

Assessment of onset of monsoon will be done on May 15.

It said that normal rains are likely for the country, particularly East India, while the Southern Peninsula and parts of Northeast India could be at some risk of getting below normal rains. India receives 70% of its annual rainfall in the four-month period, which in turn irrigates over half of its farm lands lacking assured irrigation. The average rainfall in "above normal" monsoon is between 104-110 per cent of the LPA while anything beyond 110 per cent of the LPA is considered as "excess".

The forecast based on the MMCFS suggests that the monsoon rainfall during the 2018 monsoon season (June to September) averaged over the country as a whole is likely to be 99% ± 5% of the Long Period Average (LPA). India had faced deficient rains during monsoon season in 2015 and 2014, making both these years drought years.

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