Published: Tue, April 17, 2018
Worldwide | By Isabel Fisher

WaPo/ABC Poll: Democrat advantage on voter preferences and enthusiasm shrinks

WaPo/ABC Poll: Democrat advantage on voter preferences and enthusiasm shrinks

New-jersey has 12 representatives inside your home - 7 Democrats and five Republicans.

The poll was conducted April 8-11 among 1,002 adults and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

4 of those five GOP-held chairs are CNN critical Races, together with just one listed within the leaning Democratic category, two because toss-ups and you as very likely Republican.

Democrats' advantage over Republicans ahead of the midterm elections is slipping as the gun control debate becomes a wildcard issue, according to a poll The Washington Post published Monday. As a whole, the group splits almost evenly, with 47 percent supporting Democrats and 46 percent backing Republicans.

The strong gains by Republican candidates comes on the heels of other positive polls; highlighting President Trump's healthy 51% approval rating after months of strong economic data and diplomatic breakthroughs with North Korea.

Only 34 percent of New Jersey voters approve of the job Trump is doing, while 61 percent disapprove. Still, Trump continues to face majority disapproval at 56 percent, higher than any president at this stage since the dawn of modern polling, an indication that he remains a significant liability for Republicans on November's ballot.

Enthusiasm is also shifting. "Not only are New Jersey Democrats doing better on the generic House ballot statewide, but the shift is coming nearly entirely from districts now held by the GOP", said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. The aggregate vote from these five districts in the past two House elections averaged a 22-point advantage for the Republicans.


Democrats are facing backlash on other issues as well, especially in California, where lawmakers passed a very unpopular gas tax increase created to fix infrastructure problems.

At the same time, white voters with college degrees, a competitive voting bloc, are 14 points more likely to say they are certain to vote than whites with some college or less, a group that has increasingly favored Republicans and voted for Trump at record levels.

On one hand, there are more who emphasize new gun laws; on the other, those focused on protecting gun rights are more likely to say it's "extremely" important to them to back a candidate who agrees with them, 49 vs. 40 percent among registered voters.

Seventy-eight percent of Americans and registered voters alike say it's important to them to support a candidate who shares their opinion on gun policy, including four in 10 who say it's "extremely" important.

Opposition against the measure is widespread. Liberal voters are the only group that largely supports the law. Only 28 percent back GOP ones.

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